Barrick Mining (NYSE: B) has emerged as one of the most compelling turnaround and growth stories in the global mining sector following its outstanding Q4 2025 earnings report. Barrick stock is up 37% since my recommendation on October 2025. With triple-digit EPS growth, rapidly expanding margins, and analyst forecasts pointing to continued upside in 2026, Barrick Mining is increasingly being recognized as both a growth stock and a value opportunity. In this article we will dive into Barrick Mining recent earnings, stock performance & valuation, growth potential, and the risks investor should consider.
About Barrick Mining
Barrick Mining is a leading
global gold and copper producer founded in 1983 and headquartered in Toronto,
Canada. Over the past four decades, the company has built a diversified
portfolio of high-quality mining assets spanning North America, South America,
Africa, and the Middle East. Barrick focuses on the exploration, development,
and production of gold, while copper has become an increasingly important
growth driver. Its Tier One assets, strong balance sheet, and disciplined
operating strategy support resilience across commodity cycles and long-term
shareholder value creation.
Barrick Mining Financial
Performance
Barrick Mining delivered an
exceptional Q4 2025 financial performance, highlighted by strong growth across
revenue, earnings, and cash flow. Revenue for the quarter reached $5.99
billion, up from $3.64 billion in Q4 2024, representing a 64.53% year-over-year
increase, while EPS surged to $1.43 from $0.57, a remarkable 150.03% increase.
On a trailing twelve-month basis, revenue rose to $16.95 billion compared to
$12.92 billion a year earlier, reflecting 31.22% growth, and TTM EPS climbed to
$2.93 from $1.22, an increase of 139.75%. Free cash flow generation
strengthened significantly, with TTM free cash flow per share reaching $2.27,
up from $0.75, marking a 202.67% increase. Profitability remained robust,
supported by a Gross profit margin of 51.26%, Net profit margin of 29.45%, and Free
cash flow margin of 22.81%, while capital efficiency metrics showed a Return on
assets of 9.97% and a Return on equity of 20.68%, alongside a conservative
debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15.
Over the past five years, Barrick
Mining has grown its revenue at a 9.1% CAGR, net income at 21.4%, and free cash
flow at 18.8%. Barrick’s financial performance declined in 2022 due to lower
gold prices, but it has grown rapidly since then as gold prices have risen.
High gold prices are a strong catalyst for gold mining stocks, even for the
largest miners like Barrick.
Barrick Mining Fiscal 2026
Financial Forecast
Looking ahead, analysts forecast
2026 revenue of $21.3 billion, representing 25.6% growth from 2025 revenue of
$16.96 billion, and project Non-GAAP EPS of $3.54, a 46.39% increase from 2025
EPS of $2.42. Wall Street analyst maintains a Buy rating on the stock, with an
average price target of $54.61, implying 17.11% upside, and the highest price
target of $71, suggesting a potential upside of 52.23% from current levels.
B Stock Price Performance and
Valuation
At the time this article was written Barrick stock was trading at $46.63 per share. The stock has surged 167.3% over the past year, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500’s 14.8% gain during the same period. Over the past five years, Barrick is up 110.5%, again exceeding the S&P 500’s 77% return.
Despite this sharp appreciation,
the stock’s valuation remains attractive relative to its growth outlook.
Barrick offers a 1.81% dividend yield, providing income alongside capital
appreciation. Barrick stock trades at a Price to sales P/S TTM ratio of 4.55,
which declines to forward P/S of 3.56. The Non-GAAP Price to earnings P/E TTM
of 18.51 compresses to a compelling forward P/E of 12.8 which is a low
valuation. While the P/FCF ratio of 20.19 is supported by rapidly rising free
cash flow.
Based on Fiscal.ai data, if we
look at valuations over the past five years, the forward P/S is above average,
while the forward P/E is below average. The forward P/E suggests the stock may
still be undervalued despite the recent rise in its share price. Taken
together, strong earnings growth, declining forward multiples, and solid cash
generation suggest Barrick remains a compelling investment opportunity despite
its recent stock price gains.
Barrick Mining Growth
Potential
Barrick Mining growth potential
remains strong, driven by several factors.
- Production Profile, Reserves,
and Exploration upside
From an operating standpoint, Barrick delivered 2025 gold and copper production in line with guidance, with Q4 gold output about 5% higher than Q3 at roughly 871000 ounces. Management’s 2026 guidance calls for gold production of about 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces and copper of 190000 to 220000 tonnes, suggesting a broadly stable near‑term production base. Growth potential therefore leans on maintaining long mine lives and converting resources into reserves rather than on rapid volume expansion.
The Q4 2025 materials and call highlight continued exploration success, including a doubling of the Fourmile resource and positive drilling results at several Tier 1 districts. These successes extend life at existing hubs and create optionality for future expansions or new standalone mines. However, converting exploration wins into commercial production typically takes many years, so this is a medium‑ to long‑term growth lever. - Record Cash Generation and a Now
Net Cash Balance Sheet
Q4 2025 revenue reached about $6 billion, up 45% quarter‑on‑quarter, driving net earnings of $2.41 billion and adjusted net earnings of $1.75 billion. For full‑year 2025, Barrick generated $16.96 billion of revenue, $7.69 billion of operating cash flow and $3.87 billion of free cash flow, increases of 31%, 71% and 194% versus 2024.
Together with $2.6 billion of proceeds from non‑core asset sales, this moved Barrick from $655 million of net debt at end‑2024 to roughly $2 billion of net cash by year‑end 2025, with cash of about $6.7 billion and essentially flat gross debt. This financial strength gives Barrick ample capacity to self‑fund its large copper and gold projects while maintaining flexibility through the cycle, a major underpinning of long‑term growth potential. - Deep Project Pipeline and Enlarged
Resource Base
Barrick’s growth outlook is reinforced by its strong project pipeline and resource base. The standout is the Fourmile project in Nevada, where Q4 2025 data show indicated resources rising to 2.6 million ounces at 17.6 grams per tonne and inferred resources to 13 million ounces at 16.9 grams per tonne which is about double the prior year’s levels. Recognized by management and independent studies as one of this century’s major gold discoveries, Fourmile could become a low-cost, long-life Tier One mine and a potential global leader.
Meanwhile, the Lumwana Super Pit expansion in Zambia remains ahead of schedule, set to make Lumwana a top-tier copper producer. Alongside Reko Dik in Pakistan and Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, Barrick ensures multi-decade gold and copper production visibility.
Risks to Consider
While Barrick stock looks like a
good opportunity, we should be mindful of potential risks
- Gold Price Volatility
Barrick's revenue heavily depends on gold prices, making the company particularly vulnerable to prolonged declines that squeeze profit margins despite robust cost controls. Copper production adds a measure of diversification by reducing sole reliance on gold, but it simultaneously introduces another volatile commodity risk tied to copper price swings, thereby amplifying overall exposure to fluctuating metal markets and potentially destabilizing financial performance. - Geopolitical Instability
Operations in high-risk jurisdictions such as Mali, Pakistan's Reko Diq project, Papua New Guinea, and various African regions leave Barrick vulnerable to nationalization risks, legal disputes, asset seizures, and abrupt political shifts. The recent Mali resolution, which cost the company $430 million, not only drained resources but also sets a potentially expensive precedent that may influence and complicate future negotiations in these volatile areas. - Operational Disruptions
Mining operations confront persistent challenges including labor disputes, escalating energy costs, frequent equipment failures, complex geological conditions, and significant project delays, all capable of halting production flows and substantially increasing operational expenses. Concurrently, all-in sustaining costs (AISC) have been steadily rising, which erodes profitability margins and leaves Barrick at a competitive disadvantage relative to its industry peers.
Read More: Eli Lilly (LLY) Great Growth and Good Value in Q4 2025
Conclusion
Barrick Mining stands out as a high-quality investment supported by strong financial performance, expanding margins, and accelerating free cash flow generation. The company’s disciplined balance sheet, attractive valuation, and solid dividend enhance its appeal, even after significant stock price appreciation. With favorable long-term demand for gold and copper, clear earnings growth visibility into 2026, and continued analyst confidence, Barrick remains well positioned to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns for investors seeking both growth and value in the mining sector. But remember this is not a financial advice.
I am offering a stock investing service at an affordable price to help you navigate the U.S. stock market.
Comments
Post a Comment