As digital payments continue to
replace cash and legacy transaction systems worldwide, payment processors with
scalable technology platforms are increasingly attractive to long-term
investors. Shift4 Payments (NYSE: FOUR) has emerged as a notable player in this
space, offering integrated payment and commerce solutions across multiple
high-growth industries. Following its Q3 2025 earnings release, Shift4
delivered strong revenue and cash-flow growth while its stock price remains
significantly below prior highs. In this article we will dive into Shift4
Payments recent earnings, stock performance & valuation, growth potential,
and the risks investor should consider.
About Shift4 Payments
Shift4 Payments is a
U.S.-based payment technology company providing integrated payment and commerce
solutions across hospitality, retail, e-commerce, gaming, and lodging. Founded
in 1999 as United Bank Card and rebranded in 2017, the company has expanded
through organic growth and strategic acquisitions. Shift4 enables in-store,
online, and mobile payments via a unified platform combining hardware,
software, analytics, and cloud-based tools, serving hundreds of thousands of
merchant locations worldwide.
Shift 4 Payments Financial
Performance
In Q3 2025, Shift4 Payments
reported quarterly revenue of $1.17 billion, up 29.44% year over year from $909.2
million in Q3 2024, reflecting strong transaction volume growth and business
expansion. However, EPS declined to $0.17 from $0.74 a year earlier, a 76.54%
decrease, largely due to tax benefit in previous year. On a trailing twelve-month
(TTM) basis, revenue reached $3.87 billion, representing 23.16% growth from $3.15
billion in Q3 2024, while TTM EPS increased to $2.15, up 14.67% from $1.87. Free
cash flow per share (TTM) rose to $4.56, a 15.74% increase from $3.94. Profitability
is strong with Gross profit margin of 32.61%, Net profit margin of 5.02%, and Free
cash flow margin of 10.72%. The company delivered a Return on assets of 3.14%
and a Return on equity of 14.23%, though it operates with a significant debt-to-equity
ratio of 2.15.
Over the past five years, Shift4
Payments has grown revenue at a 44.3% CAGR, while net income and free cash flow
have also increased rapidly since 2022. This is particularly encouraging, as
Shift4 Payments is still projected to grow quickly in the coming years.
Shift4 Payments Fiscal 2025 Financial
Forecast
Looking ahead, analysts forecast 2025
revenue of $4.2 billion, a 26.1% increase from $3.33 billion in 2024, and Non-GAAP
EPS of $5.23, up 34.42% from $3.89. Wall Street analyst maintains a Buy rating
with an average price target of $94.43, implying 42.82% upside, while the
highest target of $131 suggests potential upside of 98.15% from current level.
FOUR Stock Price Performance
and Valuation
At the time this article was written Shift4 Payment’s stock was trading at $66.12 per share. Shift4 Payments has declined 36.2% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500’s 12.1% gain during the same period, reflecting investor concerns around short-term earnings volatility rather than deterioration in fundamentals. Over the past five years, the stock is down 6.5%, also trailing the S&P 500’s 84.3% rise, which has compressed its valuation to historically attractive levels.
Currently, Shift4 trades at a Price to sales P/S (TTM) ratio of 1.22
and a forward P/S of 1.13, well below many fintech and payment peers, while its
Non-GAAP Price to earnings P/E (TTM) is 13.78 with forward Non-GAAP P/E of
13.15. Additionally, the Price to free cash flow P/FCF ratio is 14.09.
Based on Fiscal.ai data, if we
look at the valuation since 2023 the forward P/S, forward P/E and P/FCF are all
below the average. This indicate a potential undervaluation as Shift4 Payments business
is still growing rapidly. Taken
together, these discounted valuation metrics indicate that much of the downside
risk may already be priced in, making Shift4 an attractive value oriented
growth opportunity for long-term investors willing to look past near-term
volatility.
Shift4 Payments Growth
Potential
Shift4 Payments growth potential
remains strong driven by several factors.
- Strong Top-Line Growth and
Volume Scale-Up
Shift4 delivered very strong Q3 2025 growth, highlighting the scalability of its integrated payments platform. Gross revenue less network fees reached about 589 million USD, up roughly 61%year over year, significantly outpacing most payment peers. Overall reported revenue for the quarter was about 1.18 billion USD, growing around 29%year on year and in line with Street expectations, confirming that demand growth is both structural and sustainable rather than purely cyclical.
Total payment volume processed reached roughly 55 billion USD, up approximately 26% year on year and ahead of analyst expectations by about
. This continued volume
expansion across restaurants, hospitality, and unified commerce provides a
durable engine for future revenue growth, and the company’s reaffirmed full year
2025 outlook for high 40s percent revenue growth underlines management
confidence in that trajectory. - Organic Growth, Competitive
Positioning, and Vertical Execution
Beyond acquisitions, Q3 2025 highlighted solid organic momentum and a stable competitive environment. Management reported that organic gross revenue less network fees increased roughly 18% year over year, clearly isolating core business performance from acquired contributions in both periods. Since Q3 2022, Shift4 has nearly tripled gross revenue less network fees while expanding adjusted EBITDA margins by about 600 basis points, underscoring strong execution, favorable mix, and scale-driven efficiencies.
Blended net spreads remained steady at approximately 62 basis points in Q3, and management expects full-year spreads to exceed the previously guided 60 basis points, reflecting disciplined pricing and an improving product mix. Performance across restaurants, hospitality, and unified commerce remained resilient, supported by market-leading vertical software solutions. Additionally, management continues to prune lower-quality legacy revenue from acquisitions, shifting toward higher-quality, software-integrated revenue streams to drive more sustainable, higher-margin organic growth over the medium term. - Guidance, Valuation Context,
and Long-Term Growth Optionality
Q3 2025 guidance and management commentary reinforce Shift4’s long term growth potential. The company reaffirmed and narrowed full year 2025 guidance for gross revenue less network fees to approximately 1.98–2.02 billion USD, implying 46%–49% year over year growth, and for adjusted EBITDA to about 970–985 million USD, representing roughly 43%–45% growth. Adjusted free cash flow conversion is expected to remain above 50%. Despite these strong metrics, the CEO noted that the stock trades near 2020 levels while EBITDA has increased by around twelve times, suggesting potential valuation upside if execution continues.
The stock reacted positively to Q3, initially rising about 6%–7% on the print. Management also signaled a more transparent investor communication approach, including detailed shareholder materials and live Q&A, which may help reduce the perceived risk premium over time and support a higher multiple as the firm executes toward its 2027 free cash flow goals.
Risks to Consider
While Shift4 Payments looks like
a good investment case, we should be mindful of potential risks.
- Vertical Concentration &
Macro Sensitivity
Shift4 has significant exposure to discretionary sectors such as hospitality, entertainment, and retail, making its results sensitive to shifts in consumer confidence and travel or leisure spending. A macroeconomic downturn could reduce transaction volumes and slow revenue growth. In a risk-off environment, merchants may also postpone point of sale (POS) upgrades or seek pricing concessions, putting pressure on take-rates and margins. - Competitive Intensity in
Integrated POS
The integrated POS and SMB merchant space is highly contested, with Toast, Block’s Square, Fiserv’s Clover, Shopify, Lightspeed and legacy vendors all vying for share in restaurants, retail, and hospitality. This arms race in software functionality, pricing, and incentives risks compressing economics, raising CAC, and increasing churn, especially as rivals move upmarket into Shift4’s core segments. - Regulatory, Compliance &
Fee-Structure Risk
Operating across multiple jurisdictions exposes Shift4 to evolving rules on payments, data privacy, money transmission, tax, and cross‑border commerce, increasing compliance cost and legal risk if there are actual or perceived failures. Changes to interchange caps, network fee structures, or tax treatment in key markets (e.g., EU/Switzerland on cross‑border and tax‑free shopping flows) could also diminish unit economics on processed volume.
Conclusion
Shift4 Payments combines strong revenue growth, improving cash flow, and a scalable payments platform with a valuation that remains compelling after significant stock price underperformance. While short-term earnings volatility and leverage pose risks, long-term fundamentals, expanding market opportunities, and favorable analyst expectations support a constructive outlook. Trading at modest multiples despite double-digit growth, Shift4 offers an attractive growth-at-a-reasonable-price opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the evolving digital payments ecosystem.
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