Vistra Stock (VST) Great Growth and Good Value (Q2 2026 Earnings)

Vistra (NYSE: VST) has quietly transformed from a traditional electricity provider into one of the most dynamic growth stories in the U.S. energy sector. Backed by strong execution, smart acquisitions, and exposure to rising power demand from AI data centers and electrification, the company is delivering both growth and profitability at a scale rarely seen in its industry. Its latest quarterly results reaffirm Vistra’s position as a high-performing utility with technology-like upside, offering investors a blend of reliable cash flows and impressive long-term expansion potential. In this article we will dive into Vistra recent earnings, stock performance & valuation, growth potential, and the risks investor should consider.

About Vistra

Founded in 2016, Vistra Corporation formerly Vistra Energy is an integrated electricity company headquartered in Irving, Texas. It operates both generation (power plants) and retail electricity businesses, serving residential and commercial customers across competitive electricity markets in the U.S. Vistra’s generation portfolio is diverse: it includes nuclear, natural gas, solar, and battery storage assets. The company also owns retail electricity businesses (TXU Energy) that purchase or contract power to sell to end customers, forming an integrated value chain from generation to retail.

Vistra Financial Performance

Vistra delivered solid results in its latest quarter, showing continued strength in revenue growth and long-term earnings expansion. For the second quarter of 2025, revenue reached $4.25 billion, up 10.53% from $3.84 billion in the same period last year. However, quarterly earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.81, a 10% decline from $0.90 in Q2 2024, reflecting some short-term cost pressures. On a trailing twelve-month (TTM) basis, performance was more impressive, revenue climbed 31.6% to $18.5 billion from $14.06 billion, while EPS surged 383.82% to $6.37 compared with $1.32 a year earlier. Meanwhile, free cash flow per share for the TTM period stood at $4.80, down 22.36% from $6.18 in the prior year, indicating higher investment or capital expenditure levels. Profitability remained healthy, with a gross margin of 39.99%, net margin of 12.9%, and a free cash flow margin of 8.9%. The company also posted a return on assets (ROA) of 5.87% and a strong return on equity (ROE) of 39.3%, highlighting efficient capital utilization despite a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.74.

Over the past five years, Vistra has grown its revenue at an 11.3% CAGR and net income at 31.7%, while free cash flow has declined. Vistra’s revenue has grown steadily at a double-digit rate, and its net income is still projected to grow rapidly in the coming years.

Vistra Fiscal 2025 Financial Forecast

Looking ahead, analysts remain optimistic, projecting 2025 revenue of $20.27 billion, up 17.69% from $17.22 billion in 2024, and forecasting non-GAAP EPS of $6.98, a 52.98% increase from $4.56 in the prior year. Reflecting this optimism, Wall Street analyst maintains a Buy rating on Vistra stock, with a consensus price target of $223.92 representing 12.17% upside potential, and a high-end target of $325, suggesting a possible 62.86% upside from current levels.

VST Stock Price Performance and Valuation

At the time this article was written, the stock was trading at $199.62 per share. Vistra stock has gained 52% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 17.8% gain during the same period. Over a five-year horizon, Vistra’s performance has been even more remarkable, soaring 1,009.6%, while the S&P 500 rose just 92.9%, highlighting the company’s exceptional long-term value creation. 

Despite this impressive appreciation, Vistra still maintains an attractive investment case supported by solid fundamentals and future growth potential. The stock currently offers a modest dividend yield of 0.45%, providing some income return alongside capital appreciation potential. From a valuation standpoint, Vistra trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.67 on a trailing twelve-month (TTM) basis and a forward P/S of 3.34, reflecting continued revenue growth expectations. Its non-GAAP P/E ratio of 43.84 and forward P/E of 28.59 suggest investors are pricing in robust future earnings expansion, yet still below many high-growth peers in other sectors. Additionally, the price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) ratio of 40.92.

Based on Fiscal.ai data, if we look at the valuation over the past five years, Vistra’s forward P/S and forward P/E are significantly above the average. Although the valuation is higher than its historical levels, it remains reasonable as Vistra is still growing its EPS rapidly. However, the higher valuation makes Vistra a cautious buy at the current levels.

Vistra Growth Potential

Vistra growth potential remains strong, driven by several factors.

• Strategic Positioning in AI-Driven Electricity Demand Surge
  Vistra Corporation is positioned to benefit significantly from rising electricity demand driven by AI and data centers. The company secured a 20-year power purchase agreement to supply 1,200 megawatts of carbon-free electricity from its Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant starting in Q4 2027, reaching full capacity by 2032, with options to extend for another 20 years. This deal provides potentially 40 years of stable revenue and could boost adjusted free cash flow by 8% to 10% if fully utilized.
  The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts record electricity consumption in 2025-2026, mainly driven by AI data centers. Currently, Vistra holds an 8% share of the data center power market, aiming to expand to 20% by 2027, supported by a planned $2.5 billion investment in nuclear and energy storage projects. This strategic focus aligns Vistra to capitalize on fast-growing AI-related power needs.
• Comprehensive Nuclear Fleet Expansion with Federal Tax Credit Benefits
  Vistra has become the second-largest competitive nuclear operator in the U.S. following its $6.8 billion Energy Harbor acquisition in 2024, now operating six nuclear reactors with over 6,500 megawatts (MW) of zero-emission capacity. Each of the reactors has received a 20-year license extension from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, with the Perry Nuclear Power Plant’s extension through 2046 granted most recently in July 2025.
  This long-term regulatory certainty supports the company’s ability to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act’s nuclear production tax credits, which protect against low power prices and offer substantial upside through at least 2032. Vistra plans to add over 600 MW of nuclear capacity by mid-2030 to meet growing electricity demand, especially from AI-driven data centers. Its nuclear fleet operates at high capacity factors above 90%, providing reliable baseload power crucial for grid stability amid rising demand.
• Aggressive Texas Market Expansion and ERCOT Dominance
  Vistra, the leading competitive generator in Texas, is advancing an ambitious expansion to capitalize on the state’s booming electricity demand. The company decided to build two advanced natural gas power units totaling 860 megawatts at its Permian Basin Power Plant, tripling capacity from 325 MW to 1,185 MW. This directly supports West Texas’ growing energy needs, notably from the expanding oil and gas industries.
  Vistra plans to add over 2,000 MW of new capacity in the ERCOT market from 2024 to 2028, representing over $1 billion in capital investments. Since 2020, the company invested nearly $2 billion, adding 3,100 MW of generation capacity in Texas. In Q2 2025, Texan markets saw volume growth of 10% year-over-year, with rising residential customer counts, reinforcing Vistra’s dominance and ability to benefit from Texas' economic expansion.

Risks to Consider

While Vistra looks like a compelling investment opportunity, we should be mindful of potential risks.

• High Indebtedness Risk
  Vistra carries about $18.1 billion in total debt, creating financial constraints that could limit flexibility in funding operations, acquisitions, dividends, or share buybacks. This substantial leverage exposes the company to risks from rising interest rates and refinancing challenges, as well as restrictions imposed by financial covenants, which may limit strategic and operational activities. These factors combine to elevate Vistra’s financial risk profile.
• Operational and Outage Risks
  Unplanned outages at Vistra’s Martin Lake Unit 1 and Moss Landing battery storage have recently caused declines in quarterly earnings and revenue. The Martin Lake Unit 1 fire in late 2024 required costly repairs, delaying the unit’s return to service until late 2025. These operational disruptions have negatively affected Vistra’s financial performance and may continue to pose risks to stability and operational continuity moving forward.
• Market and Price Volatility Risks
  Volatility in energy market prices and overall market conditions can reduce Vistra's earnings, especially due to fluctuations in wholesale power capacity prices. Despite the company’s hedging strategies that cover a significant portion of its production, ongoing price volatility remains a risk, potentially affecting financial stability and earnings predictability. This market unpredictability continues to challenge Vistra's ability to maintain consistent quarterly results.

Conclusion

Vistra Corporation stands out as a rare blend of growth and value within the energy sector. Strong revenue and earnings expansion, a diversified generation portfolio, and exposure to rising electricity demand position the company for continued success. Despite its premium valuation and moderate risks, Vistra’s proven execution, high return on equity, and bullish analyst outlook support its long-term investment appeal. For investors seeking a resilient, growth-driven energy play, Vistra remains a compelling buy.